List of Flash News about up years probability
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2026-01-03 13:42 |
S&P 500 98-Year Stats: 73% Up Years and 18 Big Rallies; Data-Driven Base Rates and Crypto (BTC, ETH) Takeaways
According to @StockMKTNewz, over the last 98 years the S&P 500 finished higher in 72 of 98 years (73.5%) and lower in 26 (26.5%), with 18 years of gains above 30% and 5 years of declines worse than 30%, based on their year-end return bins. Source: @StockMKTNewz on X, Jan 3, 2026. Based on these counts, rallies of 20% or more occurred in 36 years (36.7%) while drawdowns of 20% or more occurred in 6 years (6.1%), providing traders with base rates to size annual equity beta and calibrate tail-risk hedges. Source: @StockMKTNewz on X, Jan 3, 2026. For crypto, the IMF has documented that BTC and broader crypto have moved more in sync with equities since 2020, so a constructive S&P 500 regime can coincide with stronger risk appetite for BTC and ETH in cross-asset positioning. Source: International Monetary Fund blog by Tobias Adrian, Tara Iyer, and Mahvash S. Qureshi, Jan 2022. |